Quote Ticker
  • CORN (Sep 16) 335'4 3'2 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • CORN (Dec 16) 343'0 3'4 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • CORN (Mar 17) 352'2 2'6 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Aug 16) 1010'2 17'0 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Sep 16) 999'4 14'6 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Nov 16) 986'4 12'2 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Sep 16) 414'6 -0'2 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Dec 16) 441'0 -0'4 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Mar 17) 467'0 -2'0 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Aug 16) 3455 34 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Sep 16) 3463 46 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Oct 16) 3449 53 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Aug 16) 29.46 -0.03 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Sep 16) 29.59 -0.02 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Oct 16) 29.71 -0.03 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • OATS (Sep 16) 197'0 -3'2 7/27/16   1:17 PM CST
  • OATS (Dec 16) 197'6 -2'0 7/27/16   1:19 PM CST
  • OATS (Mar 17) 203'0 -2'2 7/27/16   1:17 PM CST
  • LEAN HOGS (Aug 16) 71.625 -2.925 7/27/16   1:04 PM CST
  • LEAN HOGS (Oct 16) 61.025 -2.575 7/27/16   1:04 PM CST
  • LEAN HOGS (Dec 16) 56.350 -2.050 7/27/16   1:04 PM CST
  • LIVE CATTLE (Aug 16) 113.800 0.075 7/27/16   1:04 PM CST
  • LIVE CATTLE (Oct 16) 112.875 0.475 7/27/16   1:04 PM CST
  • LIVE CATTLE (Dec 16) 113.750 0.550 7/27/16   1:04 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Aug 16) 1.440 -0.018 7/27/16   1:48 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Sep 16) 1.437 -0.017 7/27/16   1:48 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Oct 16) 1.418 -0.018 7/27/16   1:17 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Jul 16) 15.27 7/27/16   1:58 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Aug 16) 16.93 0.07 7/27/16   1:24 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Sep 16) 16.75 0.01 7/27/16   1:31 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Sep 16) 132'17.5 0'13.5 7/27/16   1:59 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Dec 16) 131'16.0 0'10.0 7/27/16   1:48 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Mar 17)     CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Sep 16) 2162.20 - 1.10 7/27/16   1:55 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Dec 16) 2157.20     CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Mar 17) 2067.80     CST


Local Cash Bids
North Central PAMill Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
  Chart Mar 31, 17    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Oct 31, 16    
 #2 Soft Red Winter Wheat Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
Western PA Farm Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
South Central PA Mil Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
  Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
  Chart Dec 31, 16    
  Chart Jan 31, 17    
  Chart Feb 28, 17    
  Chart Mar 31, 17    
  Chart Apr 30, 17    
  Chart May 31, 17    
  Chart Jun 30, 17    
  Chart Jul 31, 17    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
  Chart Jan 31, 17    
  Chart Feb 28, 17    
  Chart Mar 31, 17    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
Eastern OH Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
 #2 Soft Red Winter Wheat Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
Fob New Jersey Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
  Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
  Chart Dec 31, 16    
  Chart Jan 31, 17    
  Chart Feb 28, 17    
  Chart Mar 31, 17    
  Chart Apr 30, 17    
  Chart May 31, 17    
  Chart Jun 30, 17    
  Chart Jul 31, 17    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
Price as of 07/27/16 02:11PM CDT.
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CHART OF THE DAY

July 25, 2016

**  US corn  in good shape heading into pollination. Condition reportis in corn  are  76% G-E & 5% P-VP.
**  Brazil  second crop corn  has seen some losses due to drought. Harvest over 50% complete.
** World corn carryout seen  near a  record high, but significant dislocations noted.
** Ethanol margins  15 c/gal positive.   Hogs  profitable. Feedlots/Dairy  starting to turn black again.
**  US  Corn  should see active exports  through the summer.   Black Sea  winning O-N-D business.
**  Funds  in the process of liquidating large (and losing) long corn position. Now  slightly net short.

Overnight  corn  trade  was  generally  steady  to  a  touch  lower,  though  the  weakness  picked  up  some
steam  toward  the  close  of  the  AM  break. Wheat  surrendered  some  ground  after  a  short-covering
spasm, dragging many other grains down with it.   Crop Progress data after the close continued the trend
of “unchanged at lofty levels”, not doing the corn market any favors as it tries to stabilize the recent
slide.  The USDA maintained a 76% Good-Excellent rating and 5% Poor-Very Poor rating on the US corn
crop, which continues to outpace the prior year’s 70% and 9%.  As expected, ratings tended to downtick
in most states, though the improvements in the central Midwest (“I” states up 1-2% G-E) tended to hold
up the average.

Pollination moved up to 79% of the crop, which is about 9% ahead of normal.  Near- term weather conditions
generally remain conducive; seasonable temps, and decent rain chances for roughly 50-60% of the Belt. 
Longer-range forecasters starting to raise red flags again over the potential for another “hot and dry” period
beginning in the first week of August?  Still has not verified on the gov’t maps, which advertise continued
“warm and wet” conditions?  First estimates are starting to trickle out ahead of August 12’s crop report, which
will update production statistics.  Private analyst AgResource pegged the US corn crop at 14.6 billion bushels
on a 169.8 bpa yield.  Some very early harvest getting under way in the southeast.

The  corn  market  met  downside price  count  objectives Friday and  we  continue  to  encourage some
profit-taking on shorts near that level ($3.33 CZ). We are not yet calling a bottom, but would suggest
corn may be able to find its footing for a minute.  A trade up to the $3.50-$3.60 level basis CZ should
be regarded as a sale.  Sell October calls and buy Sept puts on such a rally?


Corn  trade  was  broadly  two-sided  to  start  the  week,  holding  mostly  steady,  which  was  right  in  the
middle of the intraday range.  Funds were believed net even for a second session in a row in corn, as
they are likely having some mis-givings building up a big short with corn already pressed into the low
$3’s with another month of weather to go.  They are estimated net short about 20,000 contracts when
factoring in CFTC data from Friday.  Basis remained steady/firm as the farmer holds fast.  Mid-day grain
inspections remained large for the time and date, offering the market some timely support.  The USDA
pegged shipments for w/e 7/21 at 1.31 mmt, which raised the YTD corn shipment total to 39.0 vs. 40.2
in the prior year.  The pace of new sales has certainly slowed of late, but shipments of existing sales
continues to run at a rapid pace.  The majority continues to be loaded out at the Gulf, which was hinted
at given rising basis levels there.  5-6 cargos were also loaded off the PNW, mostly to Korea.  Taiwan
picked up a cargo of Oct/Nov corn from the US overnight; India still trying its best to source non-GMO
corn and not having much luck.  South Korea rejected some Argentine feed wheat for a non-approved
GMO trait?  Cattle had a great day yesterday, finishing limit-up with expanded limits today.  Ethanol
gained on corn, with cash margins still in decent shape  – 30-35 c/bu, 10+ c/gal.

 


Local Conditions
Mifflintown, PA
Chg Zip Code: 
Temp: 86oF Feels Like: 88oF
Humid: 49% Dew Pt: 65oF
Barom: 29.96 Wind Dir: N
Cond: N/A Wind Spd: 0 mph
Sunrise: 5:59 Sunset: 8:28
As reported at SELINSGROVE, PA at 2:00 PM
 
Local Radar
Mifflintown, PA
Radar
 
Local Forecast
Mifflintown, PA

Wednesday

Thursday

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Sunday
High: 89°F
Low: 63°F
Precip: 0%
High: 90°F
Low: 65°F
Precip: 20%
High: 80°F
Low: 66°F
Precip: 30%
High: 85°F
Low: 63°F
Precip: 80%
High: 81°F
Low: 64°F
Precip: 60%
View complete Local Weather



Video Clips

There is a crop report on Tues. USDA will issue wheat production estimates. It is hard to see
them as bullish. Yield reports have been record like across almost all of the hard wheat belt.
This is the report that will incorporate the new acreage estimates and make adjustments for the
larger bean and corn stocks shown on Jun 1.This coming report might moderate price action for
the next two days. But there is a very strong probability that the corn and bean markets gap
higher overnight. This is extremely important for corn as it would likely leave a 4 day island. If
that island is still in place after the Tues crop report, it likely puts last week’s lows as the lows for
the  summer.  There  is always a  danger  of  anticipating  the trade’s reaction  to  weather.  The
forecast change 3 times a day. But the technical signals will be very compelling if this happens.
If the island does not develop or if the crop report turns the market back down, it could be very
bearish with the next down side counts well below the current trade

Psychologists call habituation, as we learn from a recent related Reason article by A.
Barton Hinkle (“Americans Forget How Good They Have It“), which reminded me of the Louis CK
video above and inspired this post. Here’s an excerpt from Hinkle’s article:

When desktop computers were first available you had to assemble them yourself with a
soldering gun and spare parts from an Erector set. Then you had to program the thing,
in FORTRAN or COBOL or some other language that sounded like an alien planet in a
1950s sci-fi movie. And if you wanted to store any information, you had to write over your
favorite Van Halen casette tape with your dad’s cassette recorder.

Eventually Steve Jobs had a brilliant idea: People might want to buy computers already
assembled and programmed. Apple was born. Then along came Commodore and Sinclair
and a few others, until IBM horned in on the market and PC clones proliferated. By 1990 you
could get your hands on a 386 with a 33-megahertz microprocessor, four megabytes of RAM,
and a 200-megabyte hard drive
for the low, low price of $5,299 (only $9,739 in today’s dollars).

Today, less than $400 will get you a run-of-the-mill machine with a 2-gig processor, 8 gigs of
RAM, and a terabyte of hard drive space in case you want to store movies on your PC. All of the
movies.

Most people don’t, though, because they can live-stream everything in high-definition over
connections so fast that the end of the movie arrives before the middle does. A few years ago
people Googled “free wi-fi” a lot because there wasn’t much of it. Now 89 percent of the public thinks
free wi-fi is listed in the Bill of Rights, and if the YouTube video of the kid falling off the swing buffers
for more than a picosecond they’re never going to set foot in that McDonald’s again dammit,
because what an outrage.

This is what psychologists call habituation—the tendency to get used to things, no matter how
good or bad. You buy a new car and for the first few weeks you absolutely love it, but then one day
you find the shine of it has worn off and it’s just a car.

A few decades ago rich people could buy encyclopedia sets on the installment plan. Now most of us
walk around with a little box in our pocket that gives us instant access to nearly the entirety of human
knowledge. And it’s like that in field after field.

Robert J. Samuelson recently noted that the middle class is shrinking—not because people are getting
poorer, but because they are getting richer. The share of the populace that qualifies as upper middle class
has more than doubled since 1979. But you listen to Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump and you’d think
America has been sliding downhill since the Johnson administration. Don’t believe it for a second.

Here’s my version of that demographic shift over time in the chart below, showing the increase over
time in the share of high-income US households making $100,000 or more (in constant dollars) –
from 8.1% of households in 1967 (about 1 in 12) to 24.7% in 2014 (about 1 in 4).



Futures
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 332'4 338'0 331'6 335'4 3'2 335'6s 01:30P Chart for @C6U Options for @C6U
Dec 16 339'4 345'2 338'6 343'0 3'4 343'0s 01:30P Chart for @C6Z Options for @C6Z
Mar 17 349'0 354'2 348'2 352'2 2'6 351'6s 01:30P Chart for @C7H Options for @C7H
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 994'0 1015'4 991'2 1010'2 17'0 1010'4s 01:30P Chart for @S6Q Options for @S6Q
Sep 16 985'4 1007'0 983'6 999'4 14'6 999'6s 01:30P Chart for @S6U Options for @S6U
Nov 16 974'6 995'0 971'4 986'4 12'2 986'0s 01:30P Chart for @S6X Options for @S6X
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 416'6 421'0 414'0 414'6 -0'2 414'6s 01:30P Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 443'6 446'6 440'4 441'0 -0'4 441'4s 01:30P Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 469'4 472'6 466'4 467'0 -2'0 467'2s 01:30P Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
@SM - SOYBEAN MEAL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 3414 3493 3390 3455 34 3448s 01:30P Chart for @SM6Q Options for @SM6Q
Sep 16 3411 3495 3389 3463 46 3458s 01:30P Chart for @SM6U Options for @SM6U
Oct 16 3391 3476 3371 3449 53 3444s 01:30P Chart for @SM6V Options for @SM6V
@BO - SOYBEAN OIL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 29.58 29.88 29.40 29.46 -0.03 29.53s 01:30P Chart for @BO6Q Options for @BO6Q
Sep 16 29.69 30.00 29.52 29.59 -0.02 29.66s 01:30P Chart for @BO6U Options for @BO6U
Oct 16 29.86 30.11 29.64 29.71 -0.03 29.77s 01:30P Chart for @BO6V Options for @BO6V
@O - OATS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 198'6 201'2 197'0 197'0 -3'2 197'0s 01:30P Chart for @O6U Options for @O6U
Dec 16 197'4 199'0 196'2 197'6 -2'0 196'6s 01:30P Chart for @O6Z Options for @O6Z
Mar 17 202'2 203'0 201'0 203'0 -2'2 201'4s 01:30P Chart for @O7H Options for @O7H
@HE - LEAN HOGS - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 74.450 74.575 71.600 71.625 -2.925 71.675s 01:05P Chart for @HE6Q Options for @HE6Q
Oct 16 63.375 63.475 60.650 61.025 -2.575 61.050s 01:05P Chart for @HE6V Options for @HE6V
Dec 16 58.250 58.450 56.050 56.350 -2.050 56.450s 01:05P Chart for @HE6Z Options for @HE6Z
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 113.425 114.375 113.250 113.800 0.075 113.950s 01:05P Chart for @LE6Q Options for @LE6Q
Oct 16 112.100 113.150 111.800 112.875 0.475 113.050s 01:05P Chart for @LE6V Options for @LE6V
Dec 16 112.900 113.950 112.675 113.750 0.550 113.900s 01:05P Chart for @LE6Z Options for @LE6Z
@AC - ETHANOL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 1.464 1.464 1.440 1.440 -0.018 1.445 01:48P Chart for @AC6Q Options for @AC6Q
Sep 16 1.456 1.470 1.433 1.437 -0.017 1.437 01:48P Chart for @AC6U Options for @AC6U
Oct 16 1.438 1.438 1.418 1.418 -0.018 1.418 01:53P Chart for @AC6V Options for @AC6V
@DA - MILK CLASS III - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 16 15.28 15.30 15.25 15.27 15.27 01:58P Chart for @DA6N Options for @DA6N
Aug 16 16.84 17.04 16.81 16.93 0.07 16.94 01:51P Chart for @DA6Q Options for @DA6Q
Sep 16 16.72 16.84 16.70 16.75 0.01 16.78 01:56P Chart for @DA6U Options for @DA6U
@TY - 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 132'04.5 132'18.0 131'26.5 132'18.0 0'14.0 132'04.0 01:59P Chart for @TY6U Options for @TY6U
Dec 16 131'07.0 131'19.0 130'31.0 131'16.0 0'10.0 131'06.0 01:59P Chart for @TY6Z Options for @TY6Z
Mar 17 130'12.0 Chart for @TY7H Options for @TY7H
@ZG - Not Authorized - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 16 Chart for @ZG6N Options for @ZG6N
Aug 16 Chart for @ZG6Q Options for @ZG6Q
Sep 16 Chart for @ZG6U Options for @ZG6U
SP - S&P 500 INDEX - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 2168.50 2169.20 2153.70 2162.20 - 1.10 2163.30 01:59P Chart for SP6U Options for SP6U
Dec 16 2160.95 2145.80 2157.20 2155.60 Chart for SP6Z Options for SP6Z
Mar 17 2154.35 2139.20 2067.80 2149.00 Chart for SP7H Options for SP7H
My Custom Markets
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An investment in futures contracts involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources, and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
 

 
 
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