Quote Ticker
  • CORN (Sep 16) 336'4 0'6 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • CORN (Dec 16) 343'2 1'0 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • CORN (Mar 17) 352'4 1'2 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Aug 16) 1008'0 -26'0 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Sep 16) 1000'0 -26'6 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Nov 16) 989'0 -24'2 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Sep 16) 425'6 7'4 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Dec 16) 450'6 9'0 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Mar 17) 475'2 10'6 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Aug 16) 3470 - 58 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Sep 16) 3463 - 57 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Oct 16) 3433 - 57 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Aug 16) 30.21 -0.85 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Sep 16) 30.32 -0.88 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Oct 16) 30.45 -0.89 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • OATS (Sep 16) 208'0 -0'2 7/22/16   1:16 PM CST
  • OATS (Dec 16) 204'0 -0'4 7/22/16   1:19 PM CST
  • OATS (Mar 17) 206'4 -1'4 7/22/16   1:16 PM CST
  • LEAN HOGS (Aug 16) 75.200 0.825 7/22/16   1:04 PM CST
  • LEAN HOGS (Oct 16) 63.725 1.625 7/22/16   1:04 PM CST
  • LEAN HOGS (Dec 16) 58.325 2.025 7/22/16   1:04 PM CST
  • LIVE CATTLE (Aug 16) 109.975 2.425 7/22/16   1:04 PM CST
  • LIVE CATTLE (Oct 16) 108.100 2.375 7/22/16   1:04 PM CST
  • LIVE CATTLE (Dec 16) 109.250 1.925 7/22/16   1:04 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Aug 16) 1.463 0.013 7/22/16   1:32 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Sep 16) 1.457 0.014 7/22/16   1:32 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Oct 16) 1.432 0.014 7/22/16   1:16 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Jul 16) 15.29 7/22/16   1:13 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Aug 16) 16.72 0.27 7/22/16   1:46 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Sep 16) 16.71 0.19 7/22/16   1:46 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Sep 16) 132'04.0 -0'03.5 7/22/16   3:59 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Dec 16) 131'06.0 -0'03.5 7/22/16   3:14 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Mar 17) 130'12.0 -0'03.5 7/22/16   2:01 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Sep 16) 2167.50 9.50 7/22/16   3:23 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Dec 16) 2141.50 9.60 7/22/16   3:23 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Mar 17) 2067.80 9.60 7/22/16   3:23 PM CST


Local Cash Bids
North Central PAMill Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
  Chart Mar 31, 17    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Oct 31, 16    
 #2 Soft Red Winter Wheat Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
Western PA Farm Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
South Central PA Mil Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
  Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
  Chart Dec 31, 16    
  Chart Jan 31, 17    
  Chart Feb 28, 17    
  Chart Mar 31, 17    
  Chart Apr 30, 17    
  Chart May 31, 17    
  Chart Jun 30, 17    
  Chart Jul 31, 17    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
  Chart Jan 31, 17    
  Chart Feb 28, 17    
  Chart Mar 31, 17    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
Eastern OH Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
 #2 Soft Red Winter Wheat Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
Fob New Jersey Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
  Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
  Chart Dec 31, 16    
  Chart Jan 31, 17    
  Chart Feb 28, 17    
  Chart Mar 31, 17    
  Chart Apr 30, 17    
  Chart May 31, 17    
  Chart Jun 30, 17    
  Chart Jul 31, 17    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Aug 31, 16    
  Chart Sep 30, 16    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Jul 31, 16    
  Chart Oct 31, 16    
  Chart Nov 30, 16    
Price as of 07/23/16 06:06AM CDT.
Click to view more Cash Bid Trading System

CHART OF THE DAY

July 11, 2016

**  US corn  in good shape heading into pollination. Condition report  found corn 75% G-E & 5% P-VP.
**  Brazil  second crop corn  has seen some losses due to drought. Harvest about 50% complete.
** World corn carryout seen  near a  record high, but significant dislocations noted.
** Ethanol margins  20 c/gal positive.   Hogs  profitable. Feedlots/Dairy  starting to turn black again.
**  US  Corn  should see active exports  through the summer.   Black Sea feed wheat main competitor.
**  Funds  in the process of liquidating large, losing long corn position.

Overnight, the corn market opened firm, putting a small gap in on the Sunday night open, and  finishing
3-4 cents higher by the AM break.  Follow-through buying from Friday noted as calls for ridge formation
in the Midwest one plus week out remain largely intact.  Short-run conditions remain quite positive to
crop development.  Midwest topsoil moisture is quite good in most areas, and USDA condition reports
tonight are expected to be steady/better  – at least 6% better than year ago stats.  Beyond this week,
though, most forecasters are building in at least one full week of “hot and dry”, with an emphasis on
particular on the “hot”.  Keep an eye on the night-time lows?  Market will be sensitive to the weather
outlook beyond that point, as they will be eager to see an end to the ridge in a timely fashion.  US crops
are  either  in  pollination  mode  or  “fill  mode”,  so  still  in  a  very  sensitive  development  timing?   
As  if weather  wasn’t  enough,  trade  will  also  be  positioning  for  the  July  WASDE  update.
The  report  is expected to have mixed implications; the bear will be watching to see how the June 30th
data will be ncorporated, while the bull will be looking for significant downside world adjustments in Brazil
corn in particular.  Brazil second crop corn reportedly 30% harvested vs. 12% this time last year?

Overhead  resistance  in  corn appears  very  imposing,  to  state  the  obvious. As  expected,
Dec Corn
found major support  below $3.50,  with price counts  objectives just below that at
$3.30-3.35.  Those
with a need to sell the market should layer sales scaled-up. First major
resistance point is the  gap at
$3.65 Dec,  which was hit overnight,  beyond which we have
retracement targets  near $3.75-$3.80.



Corn snapped a 13 day steady/lower streak, finishing Friday with solid 13-14 cent daily gains and paring
losses for the short week to just 3 cents.  Friday’s close represented a welcome measure of stability after
a breath-taking three week, $1+ market break off recent highs.  Funds were estimated net buyers of
11,000 corn Friday  after a long period of aggressive liquidation of length.  CFTC data after the  close
found large, non-commercial (aka “large spec”) traders were net sellers of 78,000 corn through Tuesday
the 5th, which would pare their net length back to 107,000.  They likely went into the weekend long a
similar quantity.  Index funds appeared to lose a few longs heading into the July delivery cycle?  Export
sales of late have failed to impress the corn market, and this week was no exception to this evolving
trend.  Just 369,800 metric tons of old crop sales were booked for 15/16, though again, when combined
with 443,200 metric tons for new crop (16/17) likely met the bare minimum of analyst expectations.
Notably, most of the old crop business was to Asia, helping to explain firm PNW basis levels of late.
15/16 sales + ship stands at 47.3 mmt vs. 46.3 mmt last year.  US is still “the” key market through late
summer, though exporters have tended to pivot toward Black Sea supply for Nov/Dec?

 


Local Conditions
Mifflintown, PA
Chg Zip Code: 
Temp: 68oF Feels Like: 68oF
Humid: 100% Dew Pt: 68oF
Barom: 29.91 Wind Dir: N
Cond: N/A Wind Spd: 0 mph
Sunrise: 5:56 Sunset: 8:31
As reported at SELINSGROVE, PA at 6:00 AM
 
Local Radar
Mifflintown, PA
Radar
 
Local Forecast
Mifflintown, PA

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday
High: 92°F
Low: 68°F
Precip: 0%
High: 92°F
Low: 63°F
Precip: 0%
High: 89°F
Low: 70°F
Precip: 30%
High: 90°F
Low: 70°F
Precip: 0%
High: 89°F
Low: 66°F
Precip: 0%
View complete Local Weather



Video Clips

There is a crop report on Tues. USDA will issue wheat production estimates. It is hard to see
them as bullish. Yield reports have been record like across almost all of the hard wheat belt.
This is the report that will incorporate the new acreage estimates and make adjustments for the
larger bean and corn stocks shown on Jun 1.This coming report might moderate price action for
the next two days. But there is a very strong probability that the corn and bean markets gap
higher overnight. This is extremely important for corn as it would likely leave a 4 day island. If
that island is still in place after the Tues crop report, it likely puts last week’s lows as the lows for
the  summer.  There  is always a  danger  of  anticipating  the trade’s reaction  to  weather.  The
forecast change 3 times a day. But the technical signals will be very compelling if this happens.
If the island does not develop or if the crop report turns the market back down, it could be very
bearish with the next down side counts well below the current trade

Psychologists call habituation, as we learn from a recent related Reason article by A.
Barton Hinkle (“Americans Forget How Good They Have It“), which reminded me of the Louis CK
video above and inspired this post. Here’s an excerpt from Hinkle’s article:

When desktop computers were first available you had to assemble them yourself with a
soldering gun and spare parts from an Erector set. Then you had to program the thing,
in FORTRAN or COBOL or some other language that sounded like an alien planet in a
1950s sci-fi movie. And if you wanted to store any information, you had to write over your
favorite Van Halen casette tape with your dad’s cassette recorder.

Eventually Steve Jobs had a brilliant idea: People might want to buy computers already
assembled and programmed. Apple was born. Then along came Commodore and Sinclair
and a few others, until IBM horned in on the market and PC clones proliferated. By 1990 you
could get your hands on a 386 with a 33-megahertz microprocessor, four megabytes of RAM,
and a 200-megabyte hard drive
for the low, low price of $5,299 (only $9,739 in today’s dollars).

Today, less than $400 will get you a run-of-the-mill machine with a 2-gig processor, 8 gigs of
RAM, and a terabyte of hard drive space in case you want to store movies on your PC. All of the
movies.

Most people don’t, though, because they can live-stream everything in high-definition over
connections so fast that the end of the movie arrives before the middle does. A few years ago
people Googled “free wi-fi” a lot because there wasn’t much of it. Now 89 percent of the public thinks
free wi-fi is listed in the Bill of Rights, and if the YouTube video of the kid falling off the swing buffers
for more than a picosecond they’re never going to set foot in that McDonald’s again dammit,
because what an outrage.

This is what psychologists call habituation—the tendency to get used to things, no matter how
good or bad. You buy a new car and for the first few weeks you absolutely love it, but then one day
you find the shine of it has worn off and it’s just a car.

A few decades ago rich people could buy encyclopedia sets on the installment plan. Now most of us
walk around with a little box in our pocket that gives us instant access to nearly the entirety of human
knowledge. And it’s like that in field after field.

Robert J. Samuelson recently noted that the middle class is shrinking—not because people are getting
poorer, but because they are getting richer. The share of the populace that qualifies as upper middle class
has more than doubled since 1979. But you listen to Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump and you’d think
America has been sliding downhill since the Johnson administration. Don’t believe it for a second.

Here’s my version of that demographic shift over time in the chart below, showing the increase over
time in the share of high-income US households making $100,000 or more (in constant dollars) –
from 8.1% of households in 1967 (about 1 in 12) to 24.7% in 2014 (about 1 in 4).



Futures
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 334'4 336'6 326'6 336'4 0'6 335'0s 07/22 Chart for @C6U Options for @C6U
Dec 16 340'6 343'2 333'2 343'2 1'0 341'6s 07/22 Chart for @C6Z Options for @C6Z
Mar 17 350'6 352'4 342'6 352'4 1'2 351'4s 07/22 Chart for @C7H Options for @C7H
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 1034'2 1037'0 985'0 1008'0 -26'0 1006'4s 07/22 Chart for @S6Q Options for @S6Q
Sep 16 1027'2 1029'6 978'0 1000'0 -26'6 998'6s 07/22 Chart for @S6U Options for @S6U
Nov 16 1014'6 1016'4 966'2 989'0 -24'2 988'2s 07/22 Chart for @S6X Options for @S6X
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 417'2 427'0 407'0 425'6 7'4 425'2s 07/22 Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 440'6 451'4 431'6 450'6 9'0 450'2s 07/22 Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 464'0 475'6 455'4 475'2 10'6 475'2s 07/22 Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
@SM - SOYBEAN MEAL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 3535 3538 3354 3470 - 58 3467s 07/22 Chart for @SM6Q Options for @SM6Q
Sep 16 3523 3526 3345 3463 - 57 3458s 07/22 Chart for @SM6U Options for @SM6U
Oct 16 3492 3496 3315 3433 - 57 3431s 07/22 Chart for @SM6V Options for @SM6V
@BO - SOYBEAN OIL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 31.13 31.24 30.10 30.21 -0.85 30.21s 07/22 Chart for @BO6Q Options for @BO6Q
Sep 16 31.29 31.38 30.21 30.32 -0.88 30.31s 07/22 Chart for @BO6U Options for @BO6U
Oct 16 31.44 31.48 30.36 30.45 -0.89 30.43s 07/22 Chart for @BO6V Options for @BO6V
@O - OATS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 207'2 208'4 206'0 208'0 -0'2 207'4s 07/22 Chart for @O6U Options for @O6U
Dec 16 204'0 205'0 200'2 204'0 -0'4 204'0s 07/22 Chart for @O6Z Options for @O6Z
Mar 17 206'6 206'6 203'4 206'4 -1'4 206'6s 07/22 Chart for @O7H Options for @O7H
@HE - LEAN HOGS - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 74.600 75.425 73.825 75.200 0.825 75.275s 07/22 Chart for @HE6Q Options for @HE6Q
Oct 16 62.275 64.025 61.800 63.725 1.625 63.900s 07/22 Chart for @HE6V Options for @HE6V
Dec 16 56.500 58.575 56.000 58.325 2.025 58.475s 07/22 Chart for @HE6Z Options for @HE6Z
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 107.450 110.425 107.350 109.975 2.425 109.950s 07/22 Chart for @LE6Q Options for @LE6Q
Oct 16 105.800 108.525 105.550 108.100 2.375 108.075s 07/22 Chart for @LE6V Options for @LE6V
Dec 16 107.300 109.475 107.150 109.250 1.925 109.200s 07/22 Chart for @LE6Z Options for @LE6Z
@AC - ETHANOL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 1.445 1.467 1.425 1.463 0.013 1.464s 07/22 Chart for @AC6Q Options for @AC6Q
Sep 16 1.441 1.461 1.428 1.457 0.014 1.459s 07/22 Chart for @AC6U Options for @AC6U
Oct 16 1.406 1.432 1.406 1.432 0.014 1.432s 07/22 Chart for @AC6V Options for @AC6V
@DA - MILK CLASS III - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 16 15.27 15.29 15.27 15.29 15.27s 07/22 Chart for @DA6N Options for @DA6N
Aug 16 16.31 16.77 16.29 16.72 0.27 16.72s 07/22 Chart for @DA6Q Options for @DA6Q
Sep 16 16.37 16.79 16.36 16.71 0.19 16.68s 07/22 Chart for @DA6U Options for @DA6U
@TY - 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 132'09.5 132'16.5 131'29.0 132'04.0 -0'03.5 132'04.0s 07/22 Chart for @TY6U Options for @TY6U
Dec 16 131'16.5 131'16.5 131'02.5 131'06.0 -0'03.5 131'06.0s 07/22 Chart for @TY6Z Options for @TY6Z
Mar 17 130'12.0 -0'03.5 130'12.0s 07/22 Chart for @TY7H Options for @TY7H
@ZG - Not Authorized - ICEFU
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Jul 16 Chart for @ZG6N Options for @ZG6N
Aug 16 Chart for @ZG6Q Options for @ZG6Q
Sep 16 Chart for @ZG6U Options for @ZG6U
SP - S&P 500 INDEX - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 2160.20 2169.00 2157.50 2167.50 9.50 2167.40s 07/22 Chart for SP6U Options for SP6U
Dec 16 2160.00 2150.10 2141.50 9.60 2159.60s 07/22 Chart for SP6Z Options for SP6Z
Mar 17 2153.40 2143.50 2067.80 9.60 2153.00s 07/22 Chart for SP7H Options for SP7H
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