December 11th, 2014
Still feel the weakness of the energy market has a longer range negative affect on other commodities. I
know that the fund drive is in full force and this may take the prices lower than would be anticipated. I
am sure that there are also some long hedgers getting blown out. Counts to around 59 in crude says
we are getting to a point where pressing is dangerous? There is nothing positive in world economics
that implies consumption is going to pick up.
Chi March wheat had an amazing reversal off early weakness. The weakness was based on
aggressive Russian offers to Egypt. Chi futures were off 20 cents since the last purchase but offers
were off more than 35 cents. The rally has flat price right back to resistance levels. It takes a
confirmation of trade above 6.12 to push this market to the higher final counts at around 6.35. A trade
back below the lows of today would imply a push to test 5.50. The Jly wheat/corn spread got back to
test the 1.75 break out today and rallied 15 cents off that level. Still see it a trade from 2.00 to 1.75.
Fade those levels.
March corn is still stuck in the 3.75 to 3.95 trading range. Tried to break out above the recent highs
today but was not able. A confirmation of trade able to extend above 4.01 would go a long way to
setting the trade on the way to the 4.31 counts. Move support up to 3.90 to 3.85.
Jan beans developing a range trade of 10.00 to 10.50? Traded to the higher level today reversing the
down side plunge of Wed. Still willing to sell a rally here finding the market fairly quick to move around.
Lead with shorts and try to cover when the market gives you comfortable profits. It is not through testing
those highs. A strong trade resting above 10.60 would be the trade that chases me off the bear side for
a while. Jan oil has traded almost an identical range for 6 to 8 days. This could imply a bigger range in
the direction we break out. Look for this rally to run out of steam here but have to be realistic. Support
will surface again at 31.00 but could cut as deep at 28 cents. Meal set well back off the highs today
late as the Dec/Jan meal spread weakened. Jan meal has never negated the down side counts to $336