Key Points: ** March Quarterly Stocks data confirmed large disappearance in Dec 1 stocks data. ** Acreage estimates of 91.7 million conservative, did not appear to build in last year's prevent plant. ** Export sales continue to impress, standing at 100% of USDA's sales goal. Wed's WASDE may address. ** Geo-political tensions still simmering (RUS-UKR). Commodity funds looking to "own" feedstuffs. ** Ethanol margins have cooled, but remain highly profitable in spot. Livestock feeding profitable. ** Rallies above $5 seen as sales opportunities for producers. Funds long 200k+ corn. Overnight markets were choppy with a slightly higher bias up-front, as traders position for the April WASDE, due out at 11 AM, and also reconcile yesterday's pit-led settlements. The April WASDE is a pure S&D report - and does not include any new crop (14/15) elements. In general, most expect the USDA to once again revise higher their 13/14 corn export projections. This would further tighten up US carryout projections that have been in constant retreat since December. One could also make the argument that the weekly EIA ethanol data due out at 9:30 AM is equally important, as a bear report could "push the panic" seen recently in that market. Most expect production to ease back a bit from last week's surprise 5% surge. At any rate, the resulting output rate would be enough to meet current USDA ethanol grind forecasts. Despite the $1/gal break in cash ethanol seen recently, margins in that industry remain fantastic, but things move mighty quick in that market! Corn is quickly approaching price count objectives in the Dec contract near $5.20. The old crop still appears to be largely range-bound between $4.90-$5.10, but a decent rally off the report could set corn up for a test of weekly retracements at $5.28. The cavemen live! That's what one floor broker said as he trotted upstairs following an interesting session in which many electronic GLOBEX markets forced any interested parties to route orders through the pits. There was no reason given, other than the standard "technical issues" excuse. The downtime passed without too much controversy, with the notable exception being Dec Corn, which at the time of the outage was trading $5.07 bid, $5.08 offered, but settled out at $5.13 - nearly a nickel differential. In terms of price action, lackluster early action (China finally gave the "ok" to Brazil corn), gave way to a sudden surge in buying shortly after the day session open, likely on fund positioning ahead of today's report(s). Funds were net buyers of 10,000 corn contracts. Basis bids are generally a yawner, holding steady in most spots, though a few processors are paying up for spot delivery to entice farmers out of their machine sheds. The Goldman Roll is on-going, and the Brazil gov't offers up their latest thoughts on that country's grain & oilseed production tomorrow morning.
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Wheat is flashing all sorts of sell signals. Short term technical signals are indicating more weakness to follow. Chi wheat lost to corn. KC lost to Chi. Market closed 20 cents off the lows but damage is done. Look for 5 to 10 cent rally to run into lot of selling. US wheat certainly looks to be way overpriced when compared to other World suppliers. May did break out of the range trading up to 5.02. Needs another good close to confirm the breakout but next count on a second higher close is 5.12 to 5.14. Dec counts go to 5.20. Look for 4.93 to 4.95 to hold the break. This firmer close should be enough to set the spread back on the defensive. Farmer selling has picked up again in both old and new crop. May beans had a 40 cent range today. The K/X spreads gained over 30 cents. If this market is able to string together a strong close again tomorrow, trade has to be ready for a 50 cent rally that could stretch to a $1.00. Meal spreads also gained over $11.00 in K/Z. This is based on a sure reduction ion crush rate into the last half of the year. Domestic consumers continue to delay pricing looking for cheaper meal ---illusive? Oil tried to rally back but was pretty weak compared to the gains in the meal spreads. Oil share into new all time contract lows. Hard to build a bullish scenario in bean fundamentals with China obviously trying to cut imports---but this close is very dynamic. Take note.
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